In 2017, the global solar marketplace will experience a contraction — something that hasn’t happened in sixteen years or more. According to GTM Study, global PV installations will reduce by 7 percent in 2017.
But don’t panic, Chicken Little, this is just a blip on the radar. Driven by dropping system prices, new procurement strategies like tendering and auctions, plus emerging markets such as India plus countries in Latin America, GTM Research forecasts a cumulative typical growth rate of 8 % over the next five years, making 109-gigawatt market by 2021.
Each quarter, GTM Study analysts put together a quarterly briefing that summarizes the most important findings using their research. We’ve highlighted their intro below, but you can also download the particular executive summary from the briefing here .
Competitive reverse auction tenders carry on and proliferate globally
Whilst direct incentives and feed-in contract price programs are fading, GTM Analysis counts 33 national markets exactly where tendering or auction schemes have been in place and an additional 14 marketplaces where there have been discussions or programs for them. Tenders will be universally founded as the global model for photovoltaic procurement from both governmental plus nontraditional sources, applying downward cost pressure to tariffs globally plus establishing a virtual price roof for unsubsidized solar.
FIGURE: Markets Along with Tendering or Auction Schemes in position, Under Discussion, or in Preparing Stages*, Q1 2017
Source: GTM Study Global Pv Demand Monitor
$20/MWh bid in achieve as tenders grow more competing across global markets
In 2016, the Abu Dhabi Water & Electricity Authority (ADWEA) announced a $24/MWh solar bet by Jinko Solar and Maurebeni, which is expected to be finalized within the coming month. While the 350-megawatt ADWEA project is not expected to complete structure until 2019 and required an ideal storm of cheap debt, high sun resource and other levers, price competition in tenders is intensifying.
With larger economies associated with scale, continued cost reduction associated with hardware and soft cost elements, more sophisticated asset management plus longer time horizons, a $20/MWh bid isn’t entirely out of reach beneath the most optimal conditions. While local and global averages will remain considerably above $20/MWh for the time being, expect a lot more record absolute lows in 2017.
FIGURE: Price Competitiveness Increasing in Tenders Globally, Q2 2015-Q4 2016
Policy cliffs, curtailment and saturation are shifting programmer interest from mature markets in order to competitive and often unsubsidized tenders within new markets where currency dangers are favorable and MDB funding is cheap.
Unlike 2016, demand seasonality may drive several module price stability in 2017
In 2016, large first half demand followed by another half dip drove ubiquitous component oversupply and crashing module costs. Although annual global PV need is expected to fall in 2017 versus 2016, more balanced early plus late demand seasonality may help in order to stabilize module pricing throughout 2017.
FIGURE: 2017 Quarterly Demand Trends, Main Global Markets
Source: GTM Research PV Pulse
Global megawatt-scale operations and maintenance landscape focuses
Vertically integrated programmers account for the largest share of O& M among existing projects (23 percent), but the market is fragmented among six major vendor classes. Over the next five years, the particular megawatt-scale O& M market will be expected to exceed 501 megawatts, even though tightening margins due to falling task pricing and regional market slower downs will push for carried on portfolio consolidation.
A perfect storm pushes Oughout. S. utility fixed-tilt system prices below $1. 00/Wdc in 2017
By the first half the 2017, utility fixed-tilt PHOTOVOLTAIC system turnkey EPC pricing can land at below $1. 00 per watt (DC). Systems in several low-cost labor environments like New york and Texas will see the lowest prices. Tracker systems at 1500 volts could come close, but may average $1. 08 per watts (DC) by the second half of 2017.
FIGURE: U. S. Utility PV Fixed-Tilt Turnkey EPC System Pricing, H1 2016-2021E ($/Wdc)
Source: U. S. PV Program Pricing H2 2016
PURPA supplants RPS as the primary driver of Oughout. S. utility PV in 2017
While renewable profile standards (RPS) will continue to generate a significant volume of new utility PHOTOVOLTAIC capacity, non-RPS drivers will encourage the majority of new solar development for your next several years.
Within 2017, PURPA will represent the particular single largest driver of new capability additions with projects in New york, Oregon, South Carolina, and a handful of some other states.
AMOUNT: Percent Share of Annual Set up Capacity by Primary Utility PHOTOVOLTAIC Driver
Source: GTM Research U. S. Utility PHOTOVOLTAIC Market Tracker
U. S. residential PHOTOVOLTAIC market to flip to a consumer owned majority in 2017
As more U. S. home solar customers choose to purchase solar panel systems rather than lease them, direct possession is on its way to overtaking third-party ownership and reclaiming its placement as the leading solar financing design for the first time since 2011.
According to GTM Research’s report U. S. Residential Solar energy Financing 2016-2021 , 55 % of all U. S. residential solar power capacity installed next year will be bought by customers paying either within cash or with a loan.
Premium module brands poised to get growth in U. S. home market in 2017
As customer ownership becomes popular and local and regional contractors gain market share, premium module brand names favored in these installations will obtain share. GTM Research needs customer-owned systems to account for over fifty percent of residential capacity additions within 2017, and this percentage will increase much more in the years thereafter.
FIGURE: Modules Utilized by Long-Tail (< 3 MW) Contractors, Q1-Q3 2016
Supply: GTM Research U. S. PV Leaderboard
70%+ associated with U. S. residential installations uses module-level power electronics in 2017
The National Electric Code (NEC) has significantly extended module-level power electronics (MLPE) ownership and development. In fact , microinverters plus DC optimizers have a 90 % market share of new installations in declares with NEC 2014 rapid shutdown requirements.
California, which usually accounts for over 40 percent associated with annual U. S. residential installation, implemented NEC 2014 on The month of january 1, 2017 and push nationwide MLPE adoption above 70 %.
FIGURE: U. S Residential Market Inverter Installation Breakdown, 2016-2021E
Source: The Global PV Inverter and MLPE Landscape: H2 2016
U. S. Neighborhood solar builds on banner 12 months to exceed 400 megawatts within 2017
U. H. community solar market will achieve 410 megawatts (DC) in 2017 following realization of pent up need in states with regulatory plus legislative delays.
Utility-led programs will emerge as a principal driver for the U. S. neighborhood solar market as western Oughout. S. markets driver near-term development. GTM Research expects community photovoltaic to consistently drive 20-25 % of the U. S. non-residential PHOTOVOLTAIC market annually through 2021.
FIGURE: Yearly U. S. Community Solar Installation by Program Type
Source: GTM Research Oughout. S. Distributed Solar Service
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